Libya after the Ukrainian crisis, “Moving sands” conflicts – opinion by Suleiman Al-Bayoudi
By Suleiman Al-Bayoudi, Libya Presidential Candidate.
MISURATA, 24th May 2022 – When it comes to Libya, all attitudes seem completely irrational. The whole situation seems like a journey in the desert where warriors were drowned by the mirage, which is exactly what led me along with a group of candidates, activists and citizens to sign a petition declaring the Cairo route failing and calling for the completion of the electoral process. Actually, what really happened is indeed a successful operation however the patient was declared dead. On one hand, the Special Advisor to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs. Stephanie Williams was capable of successfully setting and facilitating a meeting between representatives of the parliament and High Council of State (HCS) in Cairo based on paragraph 5 of the Twelfth Amendment. On the other hand, however, the death of the patient is explained by their inability to reach an agreement on the proposed Constitution controversial issues within 60 days’ notice.
The two chambers are therefore required to set up new committees to prepare and adopt a constitutional path within 30 days. So, the announcement by Williams of a new round in June is proof that she is following a mirage and will eventually drown into the desert although the fact she owns a strong document that allows her to move towards the completion of the electoral process which is a great step that will be supported by the population and its elites and will impose the reconvening of the electoral path.
From this point, I am afraid that Mrs. Stephanie Williams will be pushed “to put the cart before the horse” when she is forced to discuss the executive power crisis before the constitutional rule is passed, which is basically what we try to warn about in the petition. Accordingly, the constitutional rule for elections must be established either through the two chambers or a committee of experts and we must set a deadline for presidential and parliamentary elections. Then, a discussion of the executive branch’s election crisis must occur. So there are only two ways for that, either to exclude the two Governments and form a State administration with specific functions or to continue with the two Governments and carry out the elections under the supervision of the District Security Directorates and in both cases, it is a must to reduce expenditures to the minimum.
Otherwise, it would only be a military escalation to which Russia would be a part of and the battle field will move from Ukraine to the Eruopean alligator belly – to use the famous Churchill’s phrase uttered to Montgomery in the II World War – especially as terrorism and political disintegration strike the African coast States and Libya in particular. This is what the international Powers don’t want to realize and may have chosen to engage in this conflict for a rearrangement of powers and world trade lines. The foregoing can be explained by the Madrid meetings, which are similar to a hiking trip for their excellencies. The concepts of integration, demobilization and training have become like a gum chewed by Libyans for 10 years non-stop, while solutions are actually simple. However, their implementation requires a stable political context and an effective economy that absorbs unemployment and promotes spatial development. It would be a virtual dream if I said that culture and quality of education are the solution and the development foundations. Confidential or announced meetings had also no actual impact and every time the parties deny any talk between them and practice escalation and demagogic tactical rhetoric. Libyans are getting used to that and it’s easy for them to see the truth additionally to unannounced facts that have often seeped off after a while.I wonder if the UAE’s condolence statements recently were a coincidence! In a few days the truth will come out.
As I’m writing, I’m getting a lot of swirling ideas in my head, and it is not clear if the reader will understand me. It is unfortunate that attitudes towards the Libyan nation depends on personal whims of individuals who know for sure that their survival depends on the persistence of chaos and the deprivation of Libyans from their right to choose their representatives. Politics and democracy in Libya are similar to a child who tries constantly to walk and can’t because there are no real and deep-rooted leaders who can exercise their control and authority, same thing for people in leadership positions. In fact, all the leaders resemble balloons that swell and when they explode, they fade once and for all. These cases can be traced through characters who have emerged and shined for limited periods of time and then soon disappear from the scene and after all the glorification they get, they become an outcast, few faces try to continue desperately, often supported by regional or international forces and ultimately the popular mood and state of national labor imposes on them a limited and ineffective dynamics. To wrap things up, I will say that the failure to adopt a constitutional rule and a deadline for elections before the end of this year means that North Africa and the African coast are on a date with the relapses of the Ukrainian war, just then, political talk or peaceful solutions will not make sense, and the crisis will be further complicated and intertwined.