By Saad Ben Sharada, member of the Libyan High Council of State.
The situation in Libya after the recent events will go down two tracks. The first is to devote the division and the second is to go to form a new government because the Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dabaiba is practicing behind the militias’ weapons and looting state funds, the provinces of Cyrenaica and Fezzan are not satisfied. Today the situation in Libya is becoming increasingly complex and the UN Mission and some foreign countries confuse the scene in Libya as a result of the negative interventions. The Bashagha government will operate from the city of Sirte.
How political crisis affects the economy
The economic situation now in Libya with the obstruction of the political process and the division of the government will lead to a deterioration of the economic situation, especially the Libyan economy, which is a rentier economy and depends on oil exports as the only resource of incomes. There are local and international demands to freeze oil revenues in an account outside the central bank. Because the Central Bank of Libya is accused with the government of Dabaiba to disbursing money to armed militias inside the capital Tripoli. This freeze will extend to the CBL reserves, and this will be a disaster for the Libyan State.
Tripoli armed brigades’ control over financial institutions
The control of the armed brigades in Tripoli over the financial institutions of the State will prevent any foreign or local company from working in any development project, and the security situation in Libya is considered a red line. Also, the government’s division does not encourage any internal or external investor to start any project in the country.
The Cairo meeting
The Cairo meetings between the Supreme Council of State and the House of Representatives over a constitutional rule or the amendment of the draft constitution that was completed in mid-2017 still dominate the scene. The possible scenario in the Cairo dialogues is a Turkish-Egyptian agreement on a new mini-government to oversee the implementation of the elections, and its duration will be from one to two years.
Possibility of new conflicts?
In my opinion if the Dabaiba government continues its control of Tripoli only, the rest of Libya population under the administration of the Bashagha government, agreed upon by the Libyans and appointed by the only legitimate Parliament in Libya, will be restless. And also, if the Dabaiba government insists on spending money to finance militias inside the capital, that could lead to new clashes between the Libyans.