A confederal system, among the possible solutions to be discussed in Paris?
By Vanessa Tomassini.
Less than forty days from the presidential elections first round, many concerns, fears, and challenges emerge among the parties on the political scene in Libya. As the Libyans are waiting to know the complete list of presidential and parliamentary candidates that will start on December 24, fears that the electoral process could fail become more insistent. For example, due to a new conflict or because those with military power reject the result of the elections.
International leaders gather in Paris to decide how to support the Libyans to overcome the political impasse.
The question is indeed complex: going to the vote without a solid constitutional basis, already rejected by many, could lead to a new explosion of violence; likewise, postponing the vote could trigger a new conflict. The International Community has to find a way to reassure spoilers.
There are many options on the table: new sanctions, restoring confidence to the parties through dialogue, preventing the election moment from being postponed, or guarantees for those who fear a coup. Among the many discussion elements, take space the hypothesis of a confederal system. The idea is to have a confederal government with a president and two deputies, a prime minister, and two deputies who will effectively manage three autonomous states with a certain autonomy.
The option provides for a single unified National Oil Corporation (NOC), a single Central Bank (CBL), and a single Libyan Investment Authority (LIA), but autonomy for the three local governments in terms of services and taxes. In addition, the three regions, Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan, would have their own army and security agencies, even though the same Minister of Defense heads them.
According to some observers, that would make it possible to remove the specter of a coup if one of the actors does not accept the result of the elections. Furthermore, based on the federal law of 1951, it provides that 15% of the resources remain with the local government, while at least 50% would be managed by the central confederal government, which will assign it to each region, taking into account its geographical size and population. According to some, this would make it possible to avoid a division and, above all, new conflicts and bloodshed.